Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH152026 260121 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -24.40     42.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     41.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     31.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.1  30.6  29.6  27.8  25.3  24.5  19.8  27.8  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   37.0  34.0  22.0  25.5  32.5  45.0  49.0  54.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    10.0   8.0  58.0  46.0  14.0  19.0  17.0  32.0  U  U  N  N  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  53.0  50.0  51.0  49.0  52.0  58.0  66.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  15.0  16.0  14.0   9.0  -0.0  -2.0  -0.0  -0.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       12.1%        5.2%        8.6%
 25kt / 24h       14.0%       23.7%       18.9%
 30kt / 24h       12.4%       12.9%       12.7%
 35kt / 24h       12.4%       12.9%       12.7%
 40kt / 24h        3.3%       12.9%        8.1%
 45kt / 36h        7.6%       19.0%       13.3%
 55kt / 36h        3.5%        6.8%        5.2%
 55kt / 48h        5.2%        7.2%        6.2%
 70kt / 48h        1.0%        3.1%        2.0%
 65kt / 72h        2.3%        6.4%        4.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.54

 SH152026 260121 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -24.40     42.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.1  30.6  29.6  27.8  25.3  24.5  19.8  27.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  53.0  50.0  51.0  49.0  52.0  58.0  66.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  15.0  16.0  14.0   9.0  -0.0  -2.0  -0.0  -0.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%