Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH152026 260121 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -24.30     43.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     11.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.7  33.0  29.6  30.0  27.7  20.4  27.0  18.2  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   36.0  22.0  22.0  29.0  45.0  49.0  52.0  54.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     8.0  57.0  46.0  24.0  11.0   3.0  28.0  -3.0  U  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  50.0  50.0  49.0  50.0  50.0  51.0  51.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  20.0  16.0  10.0   5.0  -2.0  -0.0  -2.0  -0.0 VU  U  U  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        2.5%        1.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.8%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.6%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        1.4%        0.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.7%        1.3%        1.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        5.1%        1.7%        3.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.60

 SH152026 260121 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -24.30     43.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.7  33.0  29.6  30.0  27.7  20.4  27.0  18.2  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  50.0  50.0  49.0  50.0  50.0  51.0  51.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  20.0  16.0  10.0   5.0  -2.0  -0.0  -2.0  -0.0 VF  F  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.4%        0.3%