Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH152026 260121 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -23.90     44.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      3.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.6  28.1  27.2  22.6  22.8  15.3  20.1  16.1  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   34.0  39.3  44.7  50.0  48.0  52.0  54.0  51.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        130.0 122.3 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    40.0  35.0  22.0  34.0  18.0  10.0  39.0  13.0  N  N  U  N  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   47.0  47.0  44.0  48.0  50.0  49.0  54.0  59.0 VU VU VU  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  14.0  11.0   6.0   1.0  -1.0  -0.0  -0.0  -4.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        1.6%        0.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        1.3%        0.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        3.8%        1.7%        2.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.6%        0.3%        0.5%
 65kt / 72h       21.2%        3.3%       12.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.66

 SH152026 260121 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -23.90     44.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.6  28.1  27.2  22.6  22.8  15.3  20.1  16.1  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   47.0  47.0  44.0  48.0  50.0  49.0  54.0  59.0 VF VF VF  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  14.0  11.0   6.0   1.0  -1.0  -0.0  -0.0  -4.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%