Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH152026 260121 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -22.70     44.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     25.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     16.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    131.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.2  21.3  18.6  18.6  14.5  17.8  16.3  15.8  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   50.0  59.0  59.0  53.0  53.0  55.0  55.0  50.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    34.0  21.0  34.0  28.0  -8.0  34.0  12.0  20.0  N  U  N  U  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  48.0  48.0  52.0  50.0  54.0  58.0  64.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   9.0   4.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -2.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        4.7%        2.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.5%        0.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.9%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.5%        6.0%        3.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.2%        1.4%        0.8%
 55kt / 48h       15.7%        6.4%       11.0%
 70kt / 48h        5.2%        2.0%        3.6%
 65kt / 72h       38.1%       14.7%       26.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.16

 SH152026 260121 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -22.70     44.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    131.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.2  21.3  18.6  18.6  14.5  17.8  16.3  15.8  N  N  N  N  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  48.0  48.0  52.0  50.0  54.0  58.0  64.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   9.0   4.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -2.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%