Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH152026 260122 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -21.90     44.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     11.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.3  17.3  16.6  18.1  16.1  20.3  16.8  16.8  F  F  F  F  F  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   68.0  74.0  74.0  74.0  74.0  55.0  51.0  51.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    21.0  34.0  28.0  18.0  10.0  41.0   7.0   7.0  U  N  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  51.0  53.0  54.0  53.0  57.0  56.0  56.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -6.0  -6.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        5.6%        3.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.7%        1.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        1.1%        0.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        1.0%        8.5%        4.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.6%        2.1%        1.3%
 55kt / 48h       26.6%        7.9%       17.3%
 70kt / 48h       11.5%        3.0%        7.3%
 65kt / 72h       51.8%       21.6%       36.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.22

 SH152026 260122 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -21.90     44.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.3  17.3  16.6  18.1  16.1  20.3  16.8  16.8  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  51.0  53.0  54.0  53.0  57.0  56.0  56.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -6.0  -6.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%