Rapid Intensification Guidance SH162026 260121 06UTC Storm Located at : -19.10 161.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 11.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 24.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 14.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 6.60 F TC SIZE [%] 117.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 38.8 35.0 37.4 39.0 30.3 32.3 28.9 34.7 U U U U N U N U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 104.4 98.5 81.1 75.0 68.0 64.2 69.4 62.9 N N N U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 10.0 -31.0 -45.0 -57.0 -43.0 -16.0 -8.0 -7.0 U VU VU VU VU U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 60.0 53.0 50.0 46.0 39.0 38.0 35.0 31.0 N U U VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 13.0 26.0 8.0 38.0 26.0 49.0 21.0 26.0 U VU U VU VU VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.7% 0.4% 0.6% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.7% 0.4% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.7% 0.4% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.90 SH162026 260121 06UTC Storm Located at : -19.10 161.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40.