Rapid Intensification Guidance SH162026 260121 12UTC Storm Located at : -20.80 163.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 25.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 14.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 6.70 F TC SIZE [%] 121.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 35.2 34.3 36.5 31.7 30.7 27.1 25.5 31.4 U U U U U N N U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 98.5 81.1 81.1 75.0 69.4 70.8 76.5 75.0 N N N U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -31.0 -35.0 -40.0 -49.0 -6.0 22.0 18.0 16.0 VU VU VU VU U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 57.0 56.0 53.0 49.0 44.0 45.0 46.0 44.0 U U U U VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 11.0 -8.0 21.0 23.0 33.0 22.0 13.0 11.0 U F VU VU VU VU U U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.58 SH162026 260121 12UTC Storm Located at : -20.80 163.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40.