Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH162026 260121 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -22.10    164.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     16.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     11.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.1  35.6  30.9  30.0  30.1  25.7  26.7  25.8  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         91.2  81.1  75.0  75.0  76.5  76.5  82.7  82.7  N  N  U  U  U  U  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -35.0 -40.0 -48.0 -29.0  12.0   0.0  -6.0  21.0 VU VU VU VU  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  54.0  48.0  46.0  44.0  47.0  43.0  42.0  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -9.0  19.0  22.0  31.0  34.0  22.0  24.0  11.0  F VU VU VU VU VU VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.26

 SH162026 260121 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -22.10    164.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.