Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH162026 260122 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -24.50    169.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.8  27.7  25.6  26.1  21.3  26.2  29.3  47.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         71.7  73.0  74.4  74.4  74.4  74.4  67.9  66.7  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -34.0 -26.0  -5.0   4.0  -4.0  -7.0   0.0   3.0 VU VU  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  40.0  35.0  34.0  33.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  18.0   7.0  24.0  29.0   9.0  12.0   2.0   1.0 VU  N VU VU  U  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.5%        0.0%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.42

 SH162026 260122 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -24.50    169.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.