Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH162026 260122 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -25.20    172.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     16.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     13.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     86.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.7  32.9  30.4  25.8  27.2  27.2  27.2  27.2  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         68.0  62.9  64.2  64.2  62.9  62.9  62.9  62.9  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -34.0 -14.0  21.0 -11.0  -8.0  -8.0  -8.0  -8.0 VU  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   44.0  44.0  45.0  43.0  43.0  43.0  43.0  43.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  37.0  46.0  25.0  16.0  30.0  30.0  30.0  30.0 VU VU VU  U VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.10

 SH162026 260122 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -25.20    172.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.