Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH162026 260122 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -25.80    174.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     28.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     21.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     77.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.3  30.4  26.0  24.3  28.3  40.2  40.2  39.8  U  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         74.4  69.2  69.2  67.9  67.9  66.7  60.9  60.9  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -14.0  21.0 -11.0 -18.0 -12.0  -3.0  28.0   8.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   44.0  45.0  43.0  41.0  40.0  38.0  33.0  31.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  45.0  25.0  16.0  21.0  15.0   3.0  -0.0  -3.0 VU VU  U VU  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.12

 SH162026 260122 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -25.80    174.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.