Rapid Intensification Guidance SH162026 260125 00UTC Storm Located at : -28.70 188.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 20. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 20.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 7.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.00 F TC SIZE [%] 86.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 42.3 50.9 41.9 41.1 32.9 23.7 30.7 39.1 VU VU VU VU U N U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 66.8 61.6 57.6 56.9 61.6 65.9 71.7 82.9 U U U U U U U N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 1.0 4.0 6.0 34.0 0.0 -5.0 20.0 20.0 U U U N U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 29.0 29.0 26.0 28.0 34.0 41.0 43.0 42.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 -9.0 -8.0 -12.0 -0.0 -13.0 -2.0 6.0 N F F F N VF N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 22.92 SH162026 260125 00UTC Storm Located at : -28.70 188.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 20.