Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH172026 260123 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.00    121.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     89.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     78.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    120.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.2  17.9  13.8  17.9  19.6  14.5  22.0  19.7  N  F  F  F  N  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   71.0  29.0  48.0  11.0  11.0  11.0  11.0  11.0  N  U  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 112.3  88.0  76.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    68.0  74.0  55.0  10.0  82.0  50.0  41.0  25.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  77.0  79.0  82.0  81.0  79.0  74.0  66.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   8.0  -1.0  -1.0  -0.0   3.0  -4.0  -0.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        9.5%       14.7%       12.1%
 25kt / 24h       36.4%       63.4%       49.9%
 30kt / 24h       19.2%       55.7%       37.4%
 35kt / 24h       16.1%       55.7%       35.9%
 40kt / 24h        6.2%       51.8%       29.0%
 45kt / 36h       25.7%       60.9%       43.3%
 55kt / 36h       13.1%       42.2%       27.6%
 55kt / 48h       14.3%       43.5%       28.9%
 70kt / 48h        5.2%       27.1%       16.1%
 65kt / 72h        3.1%       21.0%       12.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.62

 SH172026 260123 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.00    121.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    120.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.2  17.9  13.8  17.9  19.6  14.5  22.0  19.7  N  N  U  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  77.0  79.0  82.0  81.0  79.0  74.0  66.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   8.0  -1.0  -1.0  -0.0   3.0  -4.0  -0.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%