Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH172026 260124 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.60    122.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     68.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     49.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    124.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.4  11.8  17.1  18.4  17.0  22.1  16.7  23.9  F  F  F  F  F  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   29.0  48.0  11.0  11.0  11.0  11.0  11.0  11.0  U  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 102.3  78.0  66.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    76.0  61.0  10.0  55.0  88.0  27.0  27.0  41.0  N  N  U  N  F  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  71.0  73.0  73.0  76.0  76.0  73.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0  -0.0  -3.0   2.0  -0.0   4.0  -3.0  -8.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       52.3%       41.3%       46.8%
 25kt / 24h       61.3%       78.0%       69.7%
 30kt / 24h       58.2%       78.0%       68.1%
 35kt / 24h       58.2%       78.0%       68.1%
 40kt / 24h       28.3%       78.0%       53.1%
 45kt / 36h       43.6%       73.1%       58.3%
 55kt / 36h       28.4%       59.6%       44.0%
 55kt / 48h       17.3%       44.4%       30.9%
 70kt / 48h        6.6%       31.5%       19.1%
 65kt / 72h        1.2%       17.6%        9.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.56

 SH172026 260124 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.60    122.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    124.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.4  11.8  17.1  18.4  17.0  22.1  16.7  23.9  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  71.0  73.0  73.0  76.0  76.0  73.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0  -0.0  -3.0   2.0  -0.0   4.0  -3.0  -8.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%