Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH172026 260124 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.80    122.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     62.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     42.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.8  17.7  17.3  13.1  16.4  16.4  16.4  16.4  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   29.0  48.0  28.0  28.0  28.0  28.0  28.0  28.0  U  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    66.0  23.0  55.0  37.0   5.0   5.0   5.0   5.0  N  U  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  72.0  72.0  73.0  77.0  77.0  77.0  77.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -8.0   2.0   2.0   5.0   5.0   5.0   5.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       21.3%       23.2%       22.2%
 25kt / 24h       47.5%       66.4%       57.0%
 30kt / 24h       35.1%       63.7%       49.4%
 35kt / 24h       34.4%       63.7%       49.1%
 40kt / 24h       14.1%       63.7%       38.9%
 45kt / 36h       35.4%       57.2%       46.3%
 55kt / 36h       22.3%       39.2%       30.7%
 55kt / 48h       16.7%       40.1%       28.4%
 70kt / 48h        6.4%       21.3%       13.8%
 65kt / 72h        3.7%       24.6%       14.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.60

 SH172026 260124 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.80    122.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.8  17.7  17.3  13.1  16.4  16.4  16.4  16.4  U  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  72.0  72.0  73.0  77.0  77.0  77.0  77.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -8.0   2.0   2.0   5.0   5.0   5.0   5.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%