Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH172026 260124 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.30    122.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     58.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     41.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.6  19.1  16.5  14.5  20.6  15.8  25.7  34.5  N  N  F  F  N  F  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   48.0  11.0  11.0  11.0  11.0  11.0  11.0  11.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  94.4  71.1  54.2  47.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    48.0  -1.0   0.0  13.0  18.0  24.0  42.0  44.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  73.0  72.0  73.0  71.0  65.0  53.0  51.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0   1.0   2.0   2.0   6.0  -3.0 -13.0 -11.0  F  N  N  N  N  N VF  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.7%        3.5%        2.6%
 25kt / 24h        7.5%       24.5%       16.0%
 30kt / 24h        4.0%       15.8%        9.9%
 35kt / 24h        3.1%       15.8%        9.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%       15.2%        7.9%
 45kt / 36h        4.5%       12.8%        8.6%
 55kt / 36h        1.6%        4.6%        3.1%
 55kt / 48h        1.9%        5.2%        3.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.3%        1.9%        1.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        1.3%        0.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.42

 SH172026 260124 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.30    122.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.6  19.1  16.5  14.5  20.6  15.8  25.7  34.5  N  N  N  U  N  U  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  73.0  72.0  73.0  71.0  65.0  53.0  51.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0   1.0   2.0   2.0   6.0  -3.0 -13.0 -11.0  U  N  N  N  N  N VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%