Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH172026 260124 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.00    123.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     77.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     40.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    116.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.7  16.6  13.8  16.4  22.9  26.3  28.7  36.0  N  F  F  F  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   28.0  28.0  28.0  28.0  28.0  28.0  28.0  28.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 107.3  83.0  62.2  47.0  45.9  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -1.0   0.0  13.0  23.0  54.0  44.0  47.0  78.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  71.0  73.0  74.0  66.0  61.0  51.0  51.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   2.0   6.0   4.0  -0.0  -0.0  -2.0 -26.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.6%        3.1%        1.8%
 25kt / 24h        5.6%       22.3%       13.9%
 30kt / 24h        2.4%       15.3%        8.8%
 35kt / 24h        2.0%       15.0%        8.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%       12.4%        6.3%
 45kt / 36h        1.9%        9.5%        5.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.6%        3.2%        1.9%
 55kt / 48h        1.8%        2.9%        2.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.3%        1.1%        0.7%
 65kt / 72h        0.2%        0.9%        0.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.94

 SH172026 260124 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.00    123.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    116.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.7  16.6  13.8  16.4  22.9  26.3  28.7  36.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  71.0  73.0  74.0  66.0  61.0  51.0  51.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   2.0   6.0   4.0  -0.0  -0.0  -2.0 -26.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N VU


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%