Rapid Intensification Guidance SH172026 260125 00UTC Storm Located at : -18.20 123.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 4.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 3.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 1.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.20 F TC SIZE [%] 100.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 16.2 10.3 20.8 25.4 16.2 29.2 38.7 35.3 F F N N F N U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 120.0 120.0 112.3 99.4 76.1 59.2 50.9 50.9 N N N N U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 12.0 6.0 -4.0 3.0 45.0 34.0 63.0 23.0 U U U U N N N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 81.0 79.0 78.0 74.0 66.0 54.0 53.0 47.0 F F F N N U U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 -0.0 10.0 6.0 -0.0 -13.0 -19.0 -33.0 N N U N N VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.7% 1.5% 1.1% 25kt / 24h 0.6% 5.5% 3.0% 30kt / 24h 0.4% 2.3% 1.4% 35kt / 24h 0.2% 2.1% 1.2% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 2.1% 1.1% 45kt / 36h 0.4% 2.6% 1.5% 55kt / 36h 0.3% 0.7% 0.5% 55kt / 48h 0.5% 0.4% 0.5% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.62 SH172026 260125 00UTC Storm Located at : -18.20 123.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 4.60 F TC SIZE [%] 100.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 16.2 10.3 20.8 25.4 16.2 29.2 38.7 35.3 U U N N U N F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 81.0 79.0 78.0 74.0 66.0 54.0 53.0 47.0 U U U N N F F VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 -0.0 10.0 6.0 -0.0 -13.0 -19.0 -33.0 N N F N N VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%