Rapid Intensification Guidance SH172026 260125 06UTC Storm Located at : -18.60 123.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 3.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 8.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 4.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.50 F TC SIZE [%] 96.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 10.9 20.1 24.3 20.5 25.5 30.9 34.8 33.8 F N N N N U U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Potential [kt] 125.0 125.0 117.3 104.4 81.1 64.2 64.2 64.2 N N N N N U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 6.0 -4.0 4.0 27.0 44.0 41.0 50.0 23.0 U U U U N N N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 80.0 79.0 76.0 73.0 64.0 51.0 47.0 47.0 F F F N N U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 8.0 6.0 2.0 -0.0 -4.0 -23.0 -16.0 N U N N N F VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.2% 1.2% 0.7% 25kt / 24h 0.8% 6.3% 3.5% 30kt / 24h 0.5% 2.5% 1.5% 35kt / 24h 0.2% 1.8% 1.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 1.8% 0.9% 45kt / 36h 1.2% 3.5% 2.4% 55kt / 36h 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 55kt / 48h 13.2% 0.7% 6.9% 70kt / 48h 4.9% 0.4% 2.7% 65kt / 72h 5.4% 0.8% 3.1% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.48 SH172026 260125 06UTC Storm Located at : -18.60 123.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 3.00 F TC SIZE [%] 96.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 10.9 20.1 24.3 20.5 25.5 30.9 34.8 33.8 U N N N N N F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 80.0 79.0 76.0 73.0 64.0 51.0 47.0 47.0 U U U N N F VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 8.0 6.0 2.0 -0.0 -4.0 -23.0 -16.0 N F N N N U VU VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%