Rapid Intensification Guidance SH172026 260125 12UTC Storm Located at : -19.10 123.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 46.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 22.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.80 F TC SIZE [%] 118.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 17.3 20.8 20.5 13.1 27.4 41.5 50.6 68.7 F N N F N VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 130.0 127.0 109.4 98.0 77.2 62.0 43.4 32.3 F N N N U U U VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -15.0 4.0 34.0 39.0 44.0 47.0 50.0 13.0 U U N N N N N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 78.0 75.0 72.0 66.0 51.0 51.0 37.0 42.0 F F N N U U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 6.0 5.0 -1.0 2.0 -10.0 -13.0 -40.0 -0.0 N N N N F VF VF N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.9% 0.5% 25kt / 24h 0.5% 5.5% 3.0% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 2.6% 1.4% 35kt / 24h 0.1% 2.1% 1.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 1.7% 0.8% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 3.2% 1.7% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.9% 0.5% 55kt / 48h 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.10 SH172026 260125 12UTC Storm Located at : -19.10 123.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 118.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 17.3 20.8 20.5 13.1 27.4 41.5 50.6 68.7 N N N U N VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 78.0 75.0 72.0 66.0 51.0 51.0 37.0 42.0 U U N N F F VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 6.0 5.0 -1.0 2.0 -10.0 -13.0 -40.0 -0.0 N N N N U VU VU N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%