Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH172026 260125 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -19.50    123.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     43.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     25.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.9   9.9  18.2  22.1  36.8  59.4  71.2  96.1  F  F  F  N  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        132.0 116.5 104.8  91.1  74.2  54.1  35.7  25.6  F  N  N  N  U  U  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    23.0  58.0  63.0  72.0  60.0  56.0  30.0  27.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  74.0  74.0  71.0  59.0  57.0  50.0  48.0  F  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0   4.0   1.0   2.0  -5.0 -42.0 -47.0 -66.0  U  N  N  N  F VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.9%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        4.3%        2.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.7%        1.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        1.3%        0.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        2.6%        1.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.60

 SH172026 260125 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -19.50    123.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.9   9.9  18.2  22.1  36.8  59.4  71.2  96.1  U  U  N  N  F VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  74.0  74.0  71.0  59.0  57.0  50.0  48.0  U  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0   4.0   1.0   2.0  -5.0 -42.0 -47.0 -66.0  F  N  N  N  U VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%