Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH172026 260126 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -20.20    123.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     20.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      5.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     93.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]         9.6  15.2  22.0  20.1  34.2  36.7  42.1  58.7  F  F  N  N  U  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        132.0 114.4 103.0  92.7  83.6  67.0  48.4  36.2  F  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    58.0  64.0  73.0  75.0  73.0  46.0  30.0  26.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  76.0  73.0  64.0  65.0  60.0  60.0  42.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   1.0   2.0  -0.0 -14.0 -35.0 -30.0 -65.0  N  N  N  N VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        3.9%        2.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.4%        0.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        1.1%        0.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.9%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        3.0%        1.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.8%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        1.1%        0.2%        0.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        0.3%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.46

 SH172026 260126 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -20.20    123.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.