Rapid Intensification Guidance SH172026 260126 06UTC Storm Located at : -20.90 123.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 39.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 14.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.00 F TC SIZE [%] 99.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 12.6 17.1 24.3 25.5 47.8 62.5 82.9 79.8 F F N N VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Potential [kt] 114.4 103.0 92.7 83.6 60.7 43.4 30.5 20.3 N N N N U U VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 39.0 43.0 47.0 35.0 66.0 23.0 25.0 -27.0 N N N N N U U VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 69.0 65.0 60.0 56.0 53.0 50.0 46.0 50.0 N N N U U U VU U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -0.0 6.0 -7.0 -10.0 -67.0 -38.0 -15.0 -3.0 N N F F VF VF VF N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.4% 1.7% 1.1% 25kt / 24h 1.0% 5.3% 3.1% 30kt / 24h 0.4% 2.1% 1.2% 35kt / 24h 0.1% 1.4% 0.8% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 1.0% 0.5% 45kt / 36h 0.2% 3.9% 2.0% 55kt / 36h 0.2% 1.1% 0.6% 55kt / 48h 14.2% 5.3% 9.7% 70kt / 48h 5.3% 0.2% 2.8% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.94 SH172026 260126 06UTC Storm Located at : -20.90 123.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30.