Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH172026 260126 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -21.70    123.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     53.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     31.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    120.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.8  15.3  25.0  32.8  36.3  50.0  54.7  66.0  F  F  N  U  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        103.0  92.7  83.6  83.6  60.7  49.2  34.1  25.6  N  N  N  N  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    63.0  60.0  56.0  65.0  47.0  56.0  36.0  39.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  58.0  56.0  53.0  47.0  45.0  42.0  38.0  N  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0  -5.0  -2.0  -4.0 -29.0 -34.0 -25.0  15.0  N  F  N  F VF VF VF  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.4%        1.9%        1.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.7%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        2.0%        1.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.6%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        1.1%        0.0%        0.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.44

 SH172026 260126 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -21.70    123.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.