Rapid Intensification Guidance SH172026 260126 18UTC Storm Located at : -22.70 123.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 65.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 43.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 118.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 20.6 23.8 36.1 43.6 56.3 82.7 78.8 83.7 N N U VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 99.3 88.6 80.4 73.2 49.1 35.9 27.1 20.1 N N N U U U VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 49.0 27.0 29.0 79.0 24.0 2.0 -8.0 -15.0 N U N N U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 57.0 58.0 57.0 51.0 51.0 47.0 49.0 48.0 U U U U U VU U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 -3.0 -7.0 -50.0 -36.0 -0.0 6.0 11.0 N N F VF VF N N U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.74 SH172026 260126 18UTC Storm Located at : -22.70 123.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25.