Rapid Intensification Guidance SH172026 260127 00UTC Storm Located at : -23.50 124.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 28.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 4.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.30 F TC SIZE [%] 87.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 22.6 37.4 46.6 47.6 69.2 79.7 78.2 85.4 N U VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 83.6 75.4 60.7 49.2 34.6 24.0 17.9 14.7 N U U U VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 76.0 91.0 77.0 59.0 49.0 15.0 11.0 51.0 N F N N N U U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 55.0 55.0 52.0 47.0 45.0 46.0 48.0 53.0 U U U VU VU VU U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -5.0 -7.0 -29.0 -46.0 -54.0 -51.0 -52.0 -56.0 F F VF VF VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 24.68 SH172026 260127 00UTC Storm Located at : -23.50 124.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30.