Rapid Intensification Guidance SH172026 260127 12UTC Storm Located at : -25.40 124.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 17.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.10 F TC SIZE [%] 108.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 36.6 41.4 53.9 69.2 68.1 80.1 81.3 81.3 U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Potential [kt] 72.0 60.0 48.4 41.7 30.9 24.5 20.2 20.2 U U U U VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 59.0 50.0 71.0 75.0 19.0 32.0 38.0 38.0 N N N N U N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 48.0 48.0 43.0 41.0 44.0 44.0 51.0 51.0 U U VU VU VU VU U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -29.0 -37.0 -36.0 -43.0 -55.0 -59.0 -34.0 -34.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 23.00 SH172026 260127 12UTC Storm Located at : -25.40 124.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25.