Rapid Intensification Guidance SH172026 260127 18UTC Storm Located at : -26.20 125.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 5.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 2.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.40 F TC SIZE [%] 103.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 37.1 46.2 56.8 63.5 69.3 76.2 93.1 93.1 U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 65.7 59.1 48.4 41.2 30.9 24.5 19.5 19.5 U U U U VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 50.0 71.0 62.0 42.0 20.0 53.0 17.0 17.0 N N N N U N U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 46.0 45.0 43.0 45.0 45.0 50.0 57.0 57.0 VU VU VU VU VU U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -38.0 -33.0 -63.0 -67.0 -52.0 -56.0 -14.0 -14.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 22.70 SH172026 260127 18UTC Storm Located at : -26.20 125.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25.