Rapid Intensification Guidance SH192026 260130 12UTC Storm Located at : -15.50 43.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 80.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 35.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 4.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 95.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 81.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 119.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 15.4 15.7 18.6 18.7 16.0 22.6 21.4 22.9 F F N N F N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 66.0 68.0 72.0 58.0 30.0 38.0 37.0 32.0 N N N N U U U U Potential [kt] 85.0 85.0 85.0 85.0 85.0 82.0 77.3 70.7 N N N N N N U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 110.0 72.0 45.0 82.0 60.0 66.0 60.0 32.0 F N N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 60.0 59.0 58.0 64.0 62.0 67.0 66.0 59.0 N U U N N N N U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 -0.0 -2.0 -3.0 -4.0 -3.0 -3.0 2.0 N N N N F N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 84.7% 67.3% 76.0% 25kt / 24h 91.9% 91.6% 91.7% 30kt / 24h 91.9% 91.6% 91.7% 35kt / 24h 91.9% 91.6% 91.7% 40kt / 24h 81.1% 91.6% 86.3% 45kt / 36h 82.2% 77.4% 79.8% 55kt / 36h 51.5% 65.7% 58.6% 55kt / 48h 45.5% 54.1% 49.8% 70kt / 48h 25.0% 34.7% 29.8% 65kt / 72h 13.1% 20.6% 16.9% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.06 SH192026 260130 12UTC Storm Located at : -15.50 43.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 80.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 35.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 4.60 F TC SIZE [%] 119.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 15.4 15.7 18.6 18.7 16.0 22.6 21.4 22.9 U U N N U N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 60.0 59.0 58.0 64.0 62.0 67.0 66.0 59.0 N F F N N N N F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 -0.0 -2.0 -3.0 -4.0 -3.0 -3.0 2.0 N N N N U N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1%