Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH192026 260130 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.50     43.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    35.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     89.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     73.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.4  18.3  18.7  17.3  15.4  29.1  25.9  35.8  F  F  N  F  F  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   68.0  73.0  57.0  41.0  37.0  35.0  27.0  17.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  67.0  64.6  51.5  45.5  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    72.0  46.0  82.0  79.0  44.0  67.0  51.0  34.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  59.0  59.0  58.0  52.0  50.0  50.0  51.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0  -3.0  -3.0  -7.0  -1.0  -4.0  -0.0   5.0  N  N  N  F  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       75.7%       49.2%       62.5%
 25kt / 24h       72.6%       74.3%       73.4%
 30kt / 24h       71.3%       74.3%       72.8%
 35kt / 24h       69.0%       74.3%       71.6%
 40kt / 24h       69.0%       72.8%       70.9%
 45kt / 36h       85.8%       59.8%       72.8%
 55kt / 36h       34.7%       44.1%       39.4%
 55kt / 48h       44.4%       17.1%       30.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.96

 SH192026 260130 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.50     43.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    35.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.4  18.3  18.7  17.3  15.4  29.1  25.9  35.8  U  N  N  N  U  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  59.0  59.0  58.0  52.0  50.0  50.0  51.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0  -3.0  -3.0  -7.0  -1.0  -4.0  -0.0   5.0  N  N  N  U  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%