Rapid Intensification Guidance SH192026 260131 00UTC Storm Located at : -16.00 44.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 100. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 100.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 20.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 7.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 84.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 61.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 101.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 20.5 18.4 21.8 17.6 20.1 26.2 32.7 37.4 N F N F N N U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 73.0 59.0 45.0 31.0 37.0 33.0 24.0 16.0 N N N U U U U U Potential [kt] 65.0 65.0 65.0 65.0 59.6 52.9 46.5 34.8 U U U U U U U VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 63.0 80.0 120.0 78.0 44.0 65.0 67.0 43.0 N N F N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 57.0 64.0 64.0 59.0 63.0 58.0 57.0 54.0 U N N U N U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -3.0 2.0 -10.0 -13.0 -0.0 -3.0 -0.0 -6.0 N N F VF N N N F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 68.3% 36.1% 52.2% 25kt / 24h 60.3% 57.6% 58.9% 30kt / 24h 55.2% 56.7% 56.0% 35kt / 24h 50.0% 56.7% 53.4% 40kt / 24h 46.6% 54.0% 50.3% 45kt / 36h 80.1% 44.1% 62.1% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.88 SH192026 260131 00UTC Storm Located at : -16.00 44.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 100. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 100.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 20.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 7.40 F TC SIZE [%] 101.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 20.5 18.4 21.8 17.6 20.1 26.2 32.7 37.4 N N N N N N F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 57.0 64.0 64.0 59.0 63.0 58.0 57.0 54.0 F N N F N F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -3.0 2.0 -10.0 -13.0 -0.0 -3.0 -0.0 -6.0 N N U VU N N N U Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.9% 0.5%