Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH192026 260131 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.30     45.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     69.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     48.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    113.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.1  18.3  18.5  17.0  25.4  22.4  32.5  34.7  N  F  N  F  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   59.3  47.7  36.0  41.0  37.0  32.0  26.0  19.0  N  N  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         90.0  90.0  90.0  89.3  82.3  75.7  71.5  65.5  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    80.0 120.0  78.0  66.0  69.0  68.0  60.0  35.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  60.0  59.0  58.0  55.0  52.0  56.0  54.0  U  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0  -5.0 -16.0  -5.0  -2.0  -4.0  -3.0  -2.0  N  F VF  F  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.7%        2.9%        2.3%
 25kt / 24h       10.2%       19.0%       14.6%
 30kt / 24h        5.6%       14.4%       10.0%
 35kt / 24h        2.7%       14.1%        8.4%
 40kt / 24h        1.3%       13.3%        7.3%
 45kt / 36h        7.1%        2.9%        5.0%
 55kt / 36h        1.2%        0.6%        0.9%
 55kt / 48h        5.2%        4.4%        4.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.9%        0.3%        0.6%
 65kt / 72h        5.0%        0.6%        2.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.74

 SH192026 260131 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.30     45.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    113.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.1  18.3  18.5  17.0  25.4  22.4  32.5  34.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  60.0  59.0  58.0  55.0  52.0  56.0  54.0  F  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0  -5.0 -16.0  -5.0  -2.0  -4.0  -3.0  -2.0  N  U VU  U  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%