Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH192026 260131 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.10     46.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -40.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     51.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     22.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.7  18.8  19.1  27.8  28.5  31.6  35.1  36.4  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   31.0  31.0  41.0  39.0  35.0  29.0  24.0  19.0  U  U  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.0 105.0 104.3  99.6  92.9  90.7  86.5  80.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   125.0  78.0  71.0  88.0  62.0  41.0  26.0  16.0  F  N  N  F  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  63.0  58.0  63.0  58.0  61.0  58.0  55.0  N  N  U  N  U  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -11.0 -13.0  -5.0  -4.0  -3.0  -0.0  -4.0  -0.0  F VF  F  F  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        1.9%        1.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.9%        0.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        1.4%        0.1%        0.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.56

 SH192026 260131 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.10     46.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -40.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.7  18.8  19.1  27.8  28.5  31.6  35.1  36.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  63.0  58.0  63.0  58.0  61.0  58.0  55.0  N  N  F  N  F  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -11.0 -13.0  -5.0  -4.0  -3.0  -0.0  -4.0  -0.0  U VU  U  U  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%