Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH192026 260131 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.00     47.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -30.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     35.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    125.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.8  18.7  27.2  31.7  24.8  33.0  32.0  39.3  N  N  N  U  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   31.0  41.0  39.0  37.0  33.0  29.0  29.0  29.0  U  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 119.3 114.6 114.6 107.9 105.7 105.7 105.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    78.0  71.0  88.0  85.0  14.0  32.0  33.0   5.0  N  N  F  F  U  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  54.0  56.0  52.0  48.0  51.0  52.0  53.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -13.0  -5.0  -4.0  -4.0  -4.0  -1.0  -1.0   4.0 VF  F  F  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        1.8%        1.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.7%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.6%        0.6%        0.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        4.0%        0.3%        2.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.42

 SH192026 260131 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.00     47.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -30.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    125.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.8  18.7  27.2  31.7  24.8  33.0  32.0  39.3  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  54.0  56.0  52.0  48.0  51.0  52.0  53.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -13.0  -5.0  -4.0  -4.0  -4.0  -1.0  -1.0   4.0 VU  U  U  U  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%