Rapid Intensification Guidance SH192026 260201 00UTC Storm Located at : -18.80 48.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -20.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 13.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 3.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.00 F TC SIZE [%] 126.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 18.2 24.3 30.8 26.1 30.5 37.5 36.0 46.8 F N U N N U U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 38.0 37.0 36.0 34.0 27.0 24.0 19.0 16.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 124.3 119.6 119.6 112.9 106.5 106.5 100.5 100.5 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 71.0 80.0 61.0 31.0 49.0 -4.0 -5.0 13.0 N N N N N U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 59.0 64.0 60.0 59.0 61.0 57.0 55.0 53.0 U N N U N U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -4.0 -3.0 -4.0 -4.0 -0.0 -1.0 -0.0 -0.0 F N F F N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.3% 1.8% 1.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.6% 0.4% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.7% 0.4% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 65kt / 72h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.24 SH192026 260201 00UTC Storm Located at : -18.80 48.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -20.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F TC SIZE [%] 126.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 18.2 24.3 30.8 26.1 30.5 37.5 36.0 46.8 N N N N N F F VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 59.0 64.0 60.0 59.0 61.0 57.0 55.0 53.0 F N N F N F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -4.0 -3.0 -4.0 -4.0 -0.0 -1.0 -0.0 -0.0 U N U U N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%