Rapid Intensification Guidance SH192026 260201 06UTC Storm Located at : -19.50 49.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 11.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 5.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.10 F TC SIZE [%] 117.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 16.8 21.9 24.2 24.6 31.4 39.5 45.0 42.6 F N N N U U VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 39.0 37.0 36.0 32.0 29.0 27.0 24.0 20.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 119.6 117.3 112.9 110.7 106.5 106.5 104.4 100.5 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 97.0 87.0 60.0 44.0 55.0 30.0 23.0 34.0 F F N N N N U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 59.0 57.0 57.0 53.0 56.0 53.0 50.0 47.0 U U U U U U U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -3.0 -1.0 2.0 -0.0 -3.0 -1.0 -0.0 -3.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.5% 1.0% 0.7% 25kt / 24h 1.6% 6.9% 4.2% 30kt / 24h 0.7% 2.6% 1.6% 35kt / 24h 0.2% 2.1% 1.2% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 2.1% 1.1% 45kt / 36h 1.0% 3.5% 2.3% 55kt / 36h 0.4% 0.8% 0.6% 55kt / 48h 4.7% 1.0% 2.9% 70kt / 48h 0.9% 0.4% 0.7% 65kt / 72h 1.4% 0.6% 1.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.08 SH192026 260201 06UTC Storm Located at : -19.50 49.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 11.40 F TC SIZE [%] 117.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 16.8 21.9 24.2 24.6 31.4 39.5 45.0 42.6 N N N N N F VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 59.0 57.0 57.0 53.0 56.0 53.0 50.0 47.0 F F F F F F F VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -3.0 -1.0 2.0 -0.0 -3.0 -1.0 -0.0 -3.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%