Rapid Intensification Guidance SH192026 260201 12UTC Storm Located at : -20.40 50.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 3.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 79.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 52.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 113.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 22.6 24.3 26.6 34.5 37.5 43.1 51.5 47.7 N N N U U VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 36.0 33.0 30.0 27.0 20.0 16.0 12.0 8.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 112.3 107.9 105.7 101.5 95.5 95.5 89.8 89.8 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 82.0 69.0 64.0 73.0 34.0 37.0 11.0 49.0 N N N N N N U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 55.0 54.0 54.0 53.0 57.0 54.0 47.0 43.0 U U U U U U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 1.0 -0.0 -0.0 -6.0 -1.0 -6.0 -0.0 N N N N F N F N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 4.0% 6.0% 5.0% 25kt / 24h 11.2% 23.2% 17.2% 30kt / 24h 4.9% 13.0% 8.9% 35kt / 24h 3.0% 13.0% 8.0% 40kt / 24h 1.1% 10.1% 5.6% 45kt / 36h 2.7% 14.6% 8.6% 55kt / 36h 0.9% 5.1% 3.0% 55kt / 48h 3.2% 1.9% 2.6% 70kt / 48h 0.5% 1.4% 0.9% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.7% 0.4% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.92 SH192026 260201 12UTC Storm Located at : -20.40 50.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 3.00 F TC SIZE [%] 113.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 22.6 24.3 26.6 34.5 37.5 43.1 51.5 47.7 N N N F F VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 55.0 54.0 54.0 53.0 57.0 54.0 47.0 43.0 F F F F F F VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 1.0 -0.0 -0.0 -6.0 -1.0 -6.0 -0.0 N N N N U N U N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%