Rapid Intensification Guidance SH192026 260201 18UTC Storm Located at : -21.00 51.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 6.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 62.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 35.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.30 F TC SIZE [%] 135.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 27.1 28.6 35.1 39.7 35.8 47.8 43.6 50.2 N N U U U VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 34.0 30.0 27.0 24.0 20.0 16.0 16.0 16.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 107.9 105.7 101.5 101.5 97.4 95.5 97.4 91.6 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 50.0 39.0 33.0 13.0 1.0 38.0 27.0 0.0 N N N U U N U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 53.0 53.0 52.0 54.0 54.0 49.0 43.0 38.0 U U U U U U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -3.0 -2.0 -0.0 -1.0 -0.0 F N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.9% 2.2% 2.1% 25kt / 24h 2.3% 7.0% 4.7% 30kt / 24h 1.3% 3.0% 2.1% 35kt / 24h 1.3% 2.7% 2.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 45kt / 36h 0.3% 4.1% 2.2% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 1.1% 0.6% 55kt / 48h 0.3% 0.5% 0.4% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.80 SH192026 260201 18UTC Storm Located at : -21.00 51.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 6.60 F TC SIZE [%] 135.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 27.1 28.6 35.1 39.7 35.8 47.8 43.6 50.2 N N F F F VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 53.0 53.0 52.0 54.0 54.0 49.0 43.0 38.0 F F F F F F VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -3.0 -2.0 -0.0 -1.0 -0.0 U N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1%