Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH192026 260202 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -20.60     52.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     39.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     33.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    120.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.0  29.2  33.6  33.7  32.5  39.5  40.5  45.2  N  N  U  U  U  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   35.0  29.0  28.0  26.0  23.0  23.0  19.0  19.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.7 105.7 101.5  99.4  99.4  99.4  95.5  95.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    58.0  71.0  54.0  60.0  46.0  37.0  47.0  11.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  57.0  58.0  57.0  56.0  53.0  53.0  45.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0  -4.0  -2.0  -3.0  -4.0  10.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  F  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.0%        1.7%        1.8%
 25kt / 24h        2.2%        6.2%        4.2%
 30kt / 24h        1.1%        2.4%        1.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.8%        2.1%        1.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        1.8%        1.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.8%        4.4%        2.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.3%        1.1%        0.7%
 55kt / 48h        1.7%        0.7%        1.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        0.5%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.6%        0.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.76

 SH192026 260202 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -20.60     52.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    120.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.0  29.2  33.6  33.7  32.5  39.5  40.5  45.2  N  N  F  F  N  F  F VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  57.0  58.0  57.0  56.0  53.0  53.0  45.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0  -4.0  -2.0  -3.0  -4.0  10.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  U  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%