Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH192026 260202 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -21.20     52.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     20.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      5.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     76.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.9  31.6  32.5  31.5  36.3  39.3  39.1  37.4  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   31.0  28.0  28.0  28.0  28.0  28.0  28.0  27.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         95.7  95.7  95.7  95.7  91.5  91.5  91.5  91.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    69.0  60.0  48.0  66.0  48.0  40.0  57.0  50.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  56.0  56.0  55.0  57.0  56.0  56.0  51.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0  -0.0  -2.0  -3.0  -0.0  -3.0  -1.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       11.9%        3.9%        7.9%
 25kt / 24h        8.1%       11.3%        9.7%
 30kt / 24h        7.3%        4.9%        6.1%
 35kt / 24h        7.3%        4.9%        6.1%
 40kt / 24h        7.3%        4.9%        6.1%
 45kt / 36h        3.4%        6.1%        4.8%
 55kt / 36h        1.5%        1.6%        1.6%
 55kt / 48h        3.0%        0.9%        1.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.4%        0.6%        0.5%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.80

 SH192026 260202 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -21.20     52.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     76.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.9  31.6  32.5  31.5  36.3  39.3  39.1  37.4  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  56.0  56.0  55.0  57.0  56.0  56.0  51.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0  -0.0  -2.0  -3.0  -0.0  -3.0  -1.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%