Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH192026 260202 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -22.10     53.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     54.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     37.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     81.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.4  36.7  34.7  38.6  43.6  49.5  46.0  54.6  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   27.0  24.0  24.0  23.0  19.0  19.0  16.0  12.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         96.5  96.5  94.4  90.5  90.5  90.5  90.5  84.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    62.0  65.0  62.0  73.0  41.0  59.0  72.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  53.0  51.0  50.0  51.0  49.0  49.0  47.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -5.0  -3.0  -1.0  -3.0  -2.0  -6.0  -2.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.7%        0.7%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        2.7%        1.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.0%        0.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        0.8%        0.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        0.6%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.2%        0.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h       -0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.52

 SH192026 260202 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -22.10     53.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     81.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.4  36.7  34.7  38.6  43.6  49.5  46.0  54.6  F  F  F  F VF VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  53.0  51.0  50.0  51.0  49.0  49.0  47.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -5.0  -3.0  -1.0  -3.0  -2.0  -6.0  -2.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%