Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH192026 260204 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -23.60     54.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     25.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     24.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        51.4  45.5  54.4  62.5  48.6  67.5  59.2  53.7 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   15.0  15.0  12.0   8.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         97.4  91.6  91.6  91.6  77.7  68.6  68.6  67.2  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     6.0  30.0  16.0  14.0  28.0  29.0  34.0 -28.0  U  N  U  U  U  N  N VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   43.0  41.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  36.0  27.0  25.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   1.0  -0.0  -6.0   3.0 -10.0  -7.0   5.0  N  N  N  F  N  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.22

 SH192026 260204 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -23.60     54.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.