Rapid Intensification Guidance SH192026 260206 00UTC Storm Located at : -25.60 57.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 20. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 20.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.30 F TC SIZE [%] 80.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 62.8 61.5 63.5 64.7 63.6 63.6 47.5 47.5 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 102.7 93.6 78.2 71.7 50.2 34.6 27.0 27.0 N N N U U VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 39.0 49.0 -4.0 -15.0 39.0 6.0 -53.0 -53.0 N N U U N U VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 33.0 34.0 35.0 40.0 43.0 46.0 38.0 38.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -7.0 -2.0 2.0 4.0 -13.0 -16.0 22.0 22.0 F N N N VF VF VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.44 SH192026 260206 00UTC Storm Located at : -25.60 57.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 20.