Rapid Intensification Guidance SH192026 260206 06UTC Storm Located at : -26.30 58.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 20. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 20.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.00 F TC SIZE [%] 87.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 64.4 59.4 53.7 50.7 48.4 52.9 43.9 31.5 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 104.3 95.0 95.0 86.7 86.7 80.5 82.9 84.2 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 20.0 -11.0 -11.0 17.0 -12.0 -10.0 -57.0 -28.0 U U U U U U VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 27.0 23.0 22.0 21.0 29.0 37.0 35.0 40.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 11.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 6.0 12.0 3.0 N U N U U N U N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.90 SH192026 260206 06UTC Storm Located at : -26.30 58.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 20.