Rapid Intensification Guidance SH192026 260206 12UTC Storm Located at : -26.40 58.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 20. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 20.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 10.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.00 F TC SIZE [%] 87.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 56.1 43.0 41.1 37.8 46.1 38.9 49.4 43.1 VU VU VU U VU U VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 102.7 102.7 102.7 95.0 86.7 79.3 80.5 81.7 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 0.0 -50.0 -11.0 -27.0 23.0 48.0 -33.0 -34.0 U VU U VU U N VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 31.0 31.0 31.0 32.0 37.0 35.0 43.0 52.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -4.0 -3.0 -6.0 -2.0 -1.0 3.0 4.0 3.0 F N F N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.20 SH192026 260206 12UTC Storm Located at : -26.40 58.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 20.