Rapid Intensification Guidance SH202026 260207 00UTC Storm Located at : -19.00 118.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 5.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 82.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 70.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 116.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 21.3 29.6 22.4 18.6 25.0 29.3 43.9 50.2 N N N N N N VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 68.0 54.0 33.0 56.0 30.0 6.0 3.0 3.0 N N U N U U U U Potential [kt] 105.0 105.0 105.0 102.0 82.4 55.0 45.4 35.9 N N N N N U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 33.0 24.0 15.0 19.0 14.0 -9.0 0.0 30.0 N U U U U U U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 54.0 53.0 53.0 50.0 47.0 50.0 54.0 56.0 U U U U VU U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 4.0 1.0 3.0 5.0 2.0 -3.0 -2.0 -0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 48.7% 34.3% 41.5% 25kt / 24h 56.0% 69.9% 62.9% 30kt / 24h 53.2% 67.8% 60.5% 35kt / 24h 53.2% 67.8% 60.5% 40kt / 24h 24.4% 66.9% 45.7% 45kt / 36h 30.1% 51.6% 40.8% 55kt / 36h 19.4% 33.9% 26.6% 55kt / 48h 14.0% 10.0% 12.0% 70kt / 48h 4.5% 6.7% 5.6% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.9% 0.5% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.12 SH202026 260207 00UTC Storm Located at : -19.00 118.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 5.00 F TC SIZE [%] 116.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 21.3 29.6 22.4 18.6 25.0 29.3 43.9 50.2 N N N N N N VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 54.0 53.0 53.0 50.0 47.0 50.0 54.0 56.0 F F F F VF F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 4.0 1.0 3.0 5.0 2.0 -3.0 -2.0 -0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1%