Rapid Intensification Guidance SH202026 260207 06UTC Storm Located at : -19.40 117.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 7.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 78.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 67.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 111.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 26.0 23.1 21.3 23.7 26.8 31.3 40.4 51.0 N N N N N U U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 54.0 57.0 56.0 33.0 4.0 7.0 3.0 3.0 N N N U U U U U Potential [kt] 100.0 100.0 97.0 87.9 64.4 40.4 30.9 30.9 N N N N U U VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -9.0 -5.0 -14.0 -3.0 7.0 47.0 79.0 42.0 U U U U U N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 53.0 54.0 50.0 49.0 47.0 50.0 57.0 55.0 U U U U VU U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 9.0 10.0 6.0 -4.0 -5.0 4.0 5.0 N U U N F F N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 30.2% 21.8% 26.0% 25kt / 24h 33.1% 47.1% 40.1% 30kt / 24h 31.9% 43.1% 37.5% 35kt / 24h 31.9% 43.1% 37.5% 40kt / 24h 11.7% 40.7% 26.2% 45kt / 36h 10.6% 19.6% 15.1% 55kt / 36h 5.9% 8.7% 7.3% 55kt / 48h 4.7% 2.4% 3.5% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.82 SH202026 260207 06UTC Storm Located at : -19.40 117.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 7.40 F TC SIZE [%] 111.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 26.0 23.1 21.3 23.7 26.8 31.3 40.4 51.0 N N N N N N F VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 53.0 54.0 50.0 49.0 47.0 50.0 57.0 55.0 F F F F VF F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 9.0 10.0 6.0 -4.0 -5.0 4.0 5.0 N F F N U U N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.2%