Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH202026 260208 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -20.70    115.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     83.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     67.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.9  32.2  29.0  30.5  36.2  46.9  66.5  53.1  N  U  N  N  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   53.0  32.0   3.0   4.0   4.0  12.7  21.4  30.1  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         89.3  77.9  67.4  54.4  31.7  25.5  19.8  24.3  N  N  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -14.0   0.0  10.0   5.0  84.0  60.0  29.0  19.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  52.0  55.0  53.0  57.0  54.0  61.0  63.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   5.0   1.0  -1.0   3.0  15.0  23.0  14.0  N  N  N  N  N  U VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.8%        4.9%        5.9%
 25kt / 24h        3.3%        7.2%        5.2%
 30kt / 24h        2.7%        5.1%        3.9%
 35kt / 24h        2.7%        4.9%        3.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.8%        3.6%        2.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        1.0%        0.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.82

 SH202026 260208 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -20.70    115.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.9  32.2  29.0  30.5  36.2  46.9  66.5  53.1  N  N  N  N  F VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  52.0  55.0  53.0  57.0  54.0  61.0  63.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   5.0   1.0  -1.0   3.0  15.0  23.0  14.0  N  N  N  N  N  F VF  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        1.8%        0.9%