Rapid Intensification Guidance SH202026 260208 06UTC Storm Located at : -21.30 114.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 70. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 70.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 7.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 86.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 61.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 107.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 30.4 28.9 28.8 32.0 45.6 62.5 65.6 52.8 N N N U VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 82.9 63.0 51.1 42.2 25.9 25.9 22.7 25.9 N U U U VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 0.0 10.0 5.0 19.0 89.0 51.0 13.0 7.0 U U U U F N U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 51.0 52.0 49.0 49.0 55.0 53.0 61.0 60.0 U U U U U U N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 5.0 1.0 -1.0 -0.0 6.0 18.0 30.0 20.0 N N N N N VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.0% 1.3% 1.1% 25kt / 24h 0.5% 1.6% 1.1% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 1.0% 0.7% 35kt / 24h 0.2% 0.8% 0.5% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.90 SH202026 260208 06UTC Storm Located at : -21.30 114.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 70.