Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH202026 260210 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -28.80    118.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     99.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        76.3  80.1  85.1  94.9  94.2 103.8  96.1 100.1 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         68.7  62.4  60.0  58.4  56.2  54.1  49.0  48.4  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    23.0  23.0  19.0  15.0  -6.0 -20.0 -19.0 -18.0  U  U  U  U  U VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   41.0  40.0  41.0  41.0  41.0  41.0  40.0  36.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0  10.0  21.0  24.0   6.0   5.0  -0.0   1.0  N  U VU VU  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 23.18

 SH202026 260210 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -28.80    118.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.